U.S. Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein is expected in the next few weeks to green light a study on a potential low-cost, light-attack fighter fleet to augment the A-10 Warthog and other aircraft flying close-air support (CAS) missions in Iraq and Syria, a top general says.
Meanwhile, the service will abandon plans to immediately pursue a more robust one-for-one Warthog replacement, as the venerable attack plane will continue flying well into the 2020s.
A final decision on whether to actually procure a commercial-off-the-shelf light fighter is still far off. But these developments are the latest in the Air Force’s evolving strategy to continue ensuring critical air support for ground troops in the low-end fight, even as the proliferation of sophisticated anti-aircraft weapons drives investment in high-end fighters like the F-35.
Goldfein’s seal of approval would kick off a long-anticipated effort to study the art of the possible for a potential 300-aircraft light fighter fleet, also known as “O-AX.” Top service officials have been hinting for months that such a study is in the works, one likely to inform an emerging plan to consider buying a low-end fighter to help fight Islamic State terrorists in the Middle East.
“He wants to see it. He is ready to go,” said Lt. Gen. Arnold Bunch, the Air Force’s top uniformed acquisition official. “Our goal is to get moving as quickly as we can.”
Funding for the study’s first phase, which would begin in the spring, is already built into the Air Force’s budget as part of roughly $100 million set aside for developmental planning and experimentation, Bunch said. The Air Force also asked for an additional $8 million to continue the study in a $10.6 billion updated wish list for the fiscal 2017 budget, sent to Congress and President Donald Trump’s transition team earlier this year.
Once the plan is approved, the Air Force will send out a broad invitation to industry to participate in the experiment, Bunch said. The service wants as many industry players as possible to take part.
The experiment’s aim is to look at the capabilities of the existing commercial designs—for instance Textron’s Scorpion light-attack fighter—and whether they can meet the mission without additional modifications or development-related costs.
“What we want to see is the results out of this and analyze: is industry really close? Are they not really close? Is it easy to operate? Is it not easy to operate?” Bunch said.
The Air Force Strategic Development Planning & Experimentation Office, based from Air Force Materiel Command, will run the study.
Buying a low-cost OA-X, rather than continuing to invest in upgrading and maintaining the aging fourth-generation fleet, could yield significant savings, said Gen. Herbert Carlisle, chief of Air Combat Command. He spoke during a Feb. 24 event in Washington. But Carlisle questioned the utility of investing in a light attack fighter, designed for the low-end fight, which would not be survivable in more hostile air space.
“Would it be viable in the environments we are trying to operate in the future? The threat is getting greater capability and the threat environment is increasing, and so when we look at OA-X we can’t look at it based on what we are doing today,” Carlisle said. “So I think the procurement cost and then the savings in [operations and maintenance] are very compelling, but I think the environment it’s going to operate in is the one we really have to understand before we commit too many resources.”
Still, Bunch said the Air Force won’t make a final decision on whether to invest in a light fighter fleet for some time. The results of the study’s first phase will likely lead to another experiment, perhaps one in which the Air Force looks at the various options in more stressful environments, Bunch said. He declined to provide a timeline for the process.
“The first thing we need to do is get through the experimentation and figure out what’s the art of the possible? Until we see that it’s really hard for me to say what the next step is,” Bunch said.
As for the A-10, the Air Force won’t begin divesting squadrons until at least 2021, Goldfein announced recently. Due to this decision, the service will abandon plans to pursue a direct replacement, previously dubbed “A-X,” at least in the near future, Bunch said.
“That may be something that we decide later, but that’s not the phase we are in right now,” Bunch said. “Right now what we’re focused on is the light attack experiment and then we will figure out where we go from there.”