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Helicopter OEMs Hope For Stability In Commercial Market Tony Osborne  Some manufacturers see 2017 as a year of consolidation; others regard it as a year of stability. No matter the perspective, it clearly was another challenging year for the commercial helicopter market. With oil and gas prices remaining stubbornly low, orders for more lucrative larger helicopters have remained stagnant. Even as energy prices begin to edge up, albeit slowly, the increases seem unlikely to absorb the overcapacity in the market that has seen dozens of aircraft languish in storage. Few if any orders have been placed for heavy aircraft for the oil and gas sector over the last two years. Instead the biggest market for these aircraft has been a resurgent defense sector; Airbus’ Super Puma family enjoyed a bumper year, thanks to several key government orders. Just a handful have made their way into the commercial market, largely to serve the para/public-service sector missions such as law enforcement and search and rescue. 2018 should see certification of Bell’s fly-by-wire Model 525 Price-sensitive market killed off Airbus’ H120 and Bell’s LongRanger during 2017 The market has prompted Airbus to rethink the launch of its Super Puma replacement, the X6. Sikorsky also, with only two commercial products in its lineup, is struggling to shift both the medium-twin S-76 and S-92 heavy models. Industry sources suggest just one S-92 was delivered during 2017, and Lockheed Martin Chief Financial Officer Bruce Tanner admits that the situation was bleak, stating the company is not expecting a large increase in commercial aircraft for 2018. “Frankly,” he told financial analysts, “we are looking pretty flat in 2019 as well.”  Instead, the energy industry now seems to favor newer super-medium aircraft such as the Airbus H175 and Leonardo AW189. Bell’s 525 will join this segment in 2019. Waypoint Leasing, which analyzed the super-medium market late in 2017, concluded that this new segment of aircraft has delivered platforms that are more cost-effective than the heavier types such as the H225 and Sikorsky S-92, particularly on shorter-range, high-passenger-density flights. Waypoint says it expects the super-mediums to sell well in the rebounding oil market.

Helicopter OEMs are increasingly seeing wind-farm support  as a growing market for light  and medium helicopters. Credit: Airbus

This appears to match forecasts from consultancy Westwood Global Energy, which predicts an uptick in activity for the oil-and-gas helicopter operators. It says the new oil finds and the exploitation of untapped reserves in the Mediterranean and East Africa will require new bases and the return to service of some surplus and stored aircraft. The company says the industry is emerging from record lows, with fleet use falling to 54% during 2017 because of reduced demand for offshore flights. For Leonardo, 2017 was a difficult year. Its helicopter division was spooked by production problems for the AW169 and AW189 models, which pushed up cost and led to significant delivery delays. One of the problems was the company’s push to chase orders and be overly flexible with aircraft configurations, even as they were on the production line. Helicopter division Managing Director Gian Piero Cutillo says the company lost discipline but is now in the process of restoring order. However, the issues illustrate the highly competitive nature of the market and the small number of orders the manufacturers are having to chase. The news is more positive for the lighter end of the market, with sales of light-single and twin-engine helicopters appearing stable. Airbus, whose deliveries and orders were announced in January, secured most of its orders from its single-engine family, though 76 of the 388 aircraft ordered in 2017 were its H145 twin-engine model. Leonardo, which faced struggles with its helicopter division during 2017, said it was confident of a growing market. Its analysis suggests the commercial market will grow around 5% over the next five years, about 9% of which will occur in what he calls the “intermediate segment”—aircraft weighing 3-8 metric tons. Stiff competition is ongoing at the lighter end of the market, particularly from Bell’s 505. The Robinson R66 did manage to kill off the Airbus H120 Colibri and Bell’s own 206L LongRanger during 2017, indicating the sensitivity of pricing in this busy sector.

It is possible that some critical markets may hold the key to future success. The long-heralded Chinese scene may not have fully opened as expected by now, but the vast market potential here is beginning to be realized. In 2016, China was Airbus’ biggest market and since then Chinese companies have placed several large orders with Western OEMs. Airbus also will start to build its H135 twin-engine medium helicopter in Qingdao this year following an order for 100 aircraft, of which 95 will be assembled from kits transferred from Airbus’ plant in Donauworth, Germany. Last June, Bell took orders for 100 of its 407GXPs from Shaanxi Aviation Industry Development Co. and Xi’an Helicopter, while 110 of its 505 JetRanger Xs have been ordered by Reignwood Investments (these encompass several disparate buyers). Leonardo also recorded a sizable order for 30 of its AW139 and AW169 medium helicopters in late 2016 to serve emergency medical missions. “We continue to feel very good about China in terms of how we’re doing and particularly on the light [helicopter] side,” said Textron President Scott Donnelly during the company’s fourth-quarter financials presentation at the end of January. Of course, 2018 should also be a milestone year for first flights and certification. Bell’s long-awaited fly-by-wire 525, which resumed flight-testing last July after its fatal crash a year earlier, is targeting FAA certification by the end of this year, possibly paving the way for customer deliveries in early 2019. Meanwhile, market newcomer Turkish Aerospace Industries plans the first flight of its twin-engine T-625 medium twin-engine helicopter for September.

Aircraft such as Leonardo’s AW189 are seeing increased sales as oil-and-gas operators seek more cost-effective platforms. Credit: Leonardo

Although initially being developed to meet Turkish military/parapublic requirements, the company wants to achieve European Aviation Safety Agency certification of the aircraft in 2020 and compete in the space currently occupied by the Bell 412, Leonardo AW139 and Sikorsky S-76D. Avicopter’s AC352, the Chinese-built derivative of the Airbus H175, is also expected to achieve certification this year. The aircraft is awaiting local certification of its WZ-16 engine, which is expected in 2019. However, several programs encountered additional delays, pushing service entry into 2019. Market newcomer Kopter Group, previously Marenco Swisshelicopter (see page 52), hopes to introduce its SH09 single-engine light helicopter to the market after certification, now planned for the first quarter of 2019. Airbus, in the meantime is continuing the development of its H160, targeting an mid-2019 certification and market entry.  Industry had been anticipating that Leonardo’s AW609 commercial tiltrotor also would be certified by the end of 2018, but an internal review has prompted the company to adjust the timing; late 2019 is now projected. Also rejoining the market should be the Schweizer 300 piston-engine light helicopter. RSG Schweizer, which took over Sikorsky’s light helicopter product line in January, is planning to restart production of the aircraft in Fort Worth by the end of the year. The restart could bring with it renewed hope of improved spares and service support for the helicopter. A lack of spares has sent availability tumbling, forcing training schools to look at alternative platforms such as the Guimbal Cabri G2 or the Enstrom family of machines.